Ikku wrote:CTCF I don't see what point you're trying to make. Yes populations follow trends and the trend is typically a logistic curve that levels out at the carrying capacity. What my point is is that the carrying capacity is NOT a constant factor, eventually we use up too many resources and the carrying capacity drops. This will lead to rapid population shrinkage. Even if it's not too rapid, think about what population shrinkage means. The birth rates are either going down or the death rates are going up, and it's not going to be the birth rates that are effected.
Also at this point, the US has not leveled off in population growth. And the US is not going to restrict the amount of children its citizens can have like China. There's a lot of things to consider, but I'm positive that humanity will have a lot of problems crashing down on it in the next hundred or so years and a LOT of those problems can be linked to overpopulation.
I guess I have no idea what point I was trying to make either. When I made the initial reply I was in between a bottle of Stoli and Black Label, but that is no excuse. To the subject at hand. I understand the logic you are presenting in your debate, but I don't think I agree that the birth rates will remain high along with an increase in the worlds overall mortality rate. Technology plays a large role in this logic. With the increase in information and technological services the ability to perform everyday functions becomes more and more efficient. This allows developed countries to perform more work with less resources (humans). Factories are run by robots, farms are run by massive machinery, and an entire company in California can be run by an individual who is computer savvy in Nebraska.
Naturally, countries that are in the transition process from the third world sector to that of a global power almost always undergo massive population growth. For example, India today is seen as a rising world power that has recently undergone the transition from that of a third world country. Hence the massive influx of newborn Indians into this world. The same thing occurred in the United State during the Industrial Revolution.
The United States population is currently not on the decline, but it will be in the next 15-30 years as the "Baby Boom Generation" begins to die off. The average number of children per household under 18 in the United States is currently 1.86. I do not know off the top of my head what this number was fifty years ago, but I can guarantee you that it was much higher than the current mark.
Likewise, evolution plays a large role in keeping the world population in check. This may sound callous and cruel, but if it were not for diseases like AIDS, malaria, African Trypanosomiasis, Cholera, and many others, then the world would be completely overpopulated today. Naturally the strongest will survive and this is the case with any animal, be it the honey bee or human beings.
As far as depleting our resources, well yea we have been burning through just about everything with no thought of the consequences, but recently the thought process has shifted to going green, recycling, and putting back into the environment what we take out of it. Granted, resources such as oil cannot be replaced, but human beings have survived in the past without gasoline and I am pretty sure that the increasing technological progress being made in the world today will provide us with an answer when that day comes. Hell I imagine governments from around the world have large amounts of think-tanks headed by renowned scientists thinking about this issue right now. However, the theory is quite simple, as Colin Campbell, the head of the depletion centre, said: "It's quite a simple theory and one that any beer drinker understands. The glass starts full and ends empty and the faster you drink it the quicker it's gone."
Actually now I have completely gone off topic and climbed a little too far out on the limb, but either way I don't share the same fears as you do about overpopulation. It is not something that is going to slow down anytime soon, but it is not something that needs to be feared. Could this be a devastating issue for some parts of the world? Yes, most definitely, but will it be a large issue for Westernized nations? No, I don't think so. Countries that follow similar logic to that of the United States have the ability to trade and market on a global level, while limiting the number of people that will be allowed into the country legally. These figures can be determined through a simple regressional analysis upon which I probably place too much confidence, but statistics is a science that we can narrow down to very very small alpha levels, hence increasing the probability that our science is correct.
I've gone on too long and most of it is rambling, but just a few thoughts from my corner of the world. I don't think your wrong Ikku and there are issues consisting of overpopulation that are detrimental to us as a planet, but stress kills and this is something to not get stressed out over.
Get busy living or get busy dying.